ECMWF ENS 15 Nov 00 UTC · 50 members · 0.25°
MOGREPS-UK 14 Nov 19–00 UTC · 18 members (lagged) · 2.2 km (shown at 0.1°)
ICON-D2-EPS 15 Nov 00 UTC · 20 members · 2.2 km (shown at 0.1°)
HARMONIE DINI EPS (DMI) 15 Nov 00 UTC · ensemble percentiles · 2 km (shown at 0.1°)
Values are the highest gust in each period (whole day or 6-hour window, UTC). Where a regional ensemble covers a point, the blend averages the percentiles and probabilities of ECMWF ENS and the regional ensembles, with equal weight per model. Elsewhere it is ECMWF ENS alone.
ECMWF beyond +90 h (Wed 18): only 6-hourly output, each value covers the last 3 hours of its window. ICON-D2-EPS ends at +48 h (Mon 16, 18 UTC). MOGREPS-UK combines the six runs from 13 to 18 UTC (three members each). HARMONIE EPS is published by DMI only as percentiles, not members: period values take the highest hourly percentile, which can slightly understate the period maximum, and probabilities are estimated from the percentiles. It ends at +54 h (Mon 16, 24 UTC).
Data: ECMWF open data (CC BY 4.0) · Met Office MOGREPS-UK via the Registry of Open Data on AWS (CC BY-SA 4.0) · Deutscher Wetterdienst open data · DMI open data (CC BY 4.0) · C3S windstorm footprints (Copernicus Climate Change Service). Map: Natural Earth.
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